Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorKoech, C. K.
dc.contributor.authorChelule, J. C.
dc.contributor.authorAyubu, Anapapa O.
dc.contributor.authorImboga, H.
dc.date.accessioned2021-04-29T11:55:01Z
dc.date.available2021-04-29T11:55:01Z
dc.date.issued2020-10
dc.identifier.citationInternational Journal of Statistics and Applied Mathematics 2020; 5(6): 01-06en_US
dc.identifier.issn2456-1452
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.mathsjournal.com/archives/2020/vol5/issue6/PartA/5-5-9
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/4620
dc.description.abstractIn Kenya, there are two levels of government namely the National Government (NG) and County Governments (CGs). NG’s revenue is mainly from taxation, borrowing, and grants among other sources while CGs rely on allocation from NG as well as Own Source Revenue (OSR). CG of Nandi has been using basic descriptive statistics to analyze OSR data such as line and bar graphs with minimal forecasting capabilities. This study focuses on the Nandi county revenue analysis from 2013/14 financial year (FY) to the 2018/19 FY. The analysis showed that the Nandi county revenue department collected an average monthly revenue amounting to Ksh. 19.29 million (Ksh. 231.5 million annually). This study performed a time series analysis on the revenues using Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). The best SARIMA model SARIMA(0,0,0)(1,0,0)[12] chosen proved to fit well in the data. The study also projected the revenue of the CG of Nandi going into the future. The average amount of monthly revenues forecasted is Ksh. 34.97 million. This means that the county government of Nandi has a potential of raising an average of Ksh. 34.97 million monthly, Ksh. 104.91 million quarterly and Ksh. 419.64 million annually.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectTime series analysis, nandi county, county governments, SARIMA, revenueen_US
dc.titleTime series analysis of Nandi county government revenue using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modelen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record